Jinchuan Nickel Premiums Continue to Pull Back, Nickel Salt Prices Rise Slightly [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary]

1.10Nickel Morning Meeting Summary

Refined Nickel:

Spot Premiums/Discounts: Today, mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel were quoted in the range of 3,000-3,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 3,150 yuan/mt, down by 300 yuan. Russian nickel premiums/discounts were quoted in the range of -200 to 100 yuan/mt, with an average of -50 yuan/mt, flat YoY.

Futures Market: In the morning, nickel prices rose by 600 yuan to 125,170 yuan, an increase of 0.48%.

Today's futures market continued to rise, but with sluggish market transactions, Jinchuan brand nickel premiums continued to pull back, with the average premium falling to 3,150 yuan/mt. Demand side, overall market transactions have been sluggish recently. Supply side, overall production supply remains sufficient. With a loose supply-demand balance, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.

Nickel Sulphate Price Spread: Today, nickel briquette prices were 124,600-124,900 yuan/mt, up by 100 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day's spot price. Nickel sulphate remains at a discount to refined nickel.

Nickel Sulphate:

On January 9, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,411 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,030-26,950 yuan/mt, and the average price rose slightly compared to yesterday.

Cost side, LME nickel prices rebounded slightly today to $15,470/mt (Ni contained) due to the impact of Indonesian macro policies, strengthening immediate cost support. Currently, the immediate profit for producing nickel sulphate using MHP has returned to a loss, while the profit margin for producing nickel sulphate using high-grade nickel matte remains. Demand side, most precursor plants have completed nickel salt restocking for January, with only a small portion still requiring restocking, and market inquiry activity remains weak. Supply side, salt plant quotation coefficients and transaction coefficients have risen slightly. Finished product inventories at salt plants remain low, and supply is tight. Overall, under the tight supply situation, prices still have room to rise.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI):

On January 9, the SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 933.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down by 1 yuan/mtu compared to the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward, and with expanding losses at traditional domestic smelters, production is expected to weaken. In Indonesia, raw material inventories at NPI smelters remain sufficient, and some smelters continue to maintain partial profits. The demand for high-grade nickel matte remains weak, and the phenomenon of converting high-grade nickel matte to high-grade NPI persists, with Indonesian production expected to grow as planned. Demand side, stainless steel mills have entered a seasonal maintenance period, leading to weaker production. Demand for NPI from steel mills has decreased MoM, and top-tier enterprises have already signed a large number of long-term contracts for raw materials, reducing spot order demand. However, current cost support for NPI remains strong, and high-grade NPI prices are expected to remain stable with a weak trend.

Stainless Steel:

On January 9, stainless steel futures prices continued to rise compared to yesterday but pulled back in the afternoon. Spot prices stabilized from the downward trend and showed signs of recovery. Significant production cuts at east China steel mills in January may balance the market's strong supply and weak demand, providing price support. In the morning, 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi was quoted at 12,800-13,000 yuan/mt, 304 HRC at 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, 316L cold-rolled at 23,600-23,800 yuan/mt, 201J1 cold-rolled at 7,400-7,700 yuan/mt, and 430 cold-rolled at 7,150-7,450 yuan/mt. At 10:30 a.m., the SHFE SS2503 contract price was 13,210 yuan/mt, and Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums were -240 to -40 yuan/mt (spot trimmed edge = rough edge + 170 yuan/mt).